More on "socialism"

Let's accept the premise that government intervention in the economy over the long run depresses economic growth, that because free markets allocate resources more efficiently than government, freer markets will be more efficient. I don't think this is true in all cases, and am deeply suspicious that theories of this sort do not apply to every real world situation.

However, again, let's simply accept the premise. The question it raises in my mind is economic efficiency, in terms of increasing total economic output the only good that matters? I look around my house, and I have a ton of stuff. More than I need. If I had to move, I'd likely throw a lot of it away. Of course, I'm not poor, so perhaps the problem is distribution.

One of my core political beliefs is that there is no single account of the good that can satisfy anyone. Therefore, we should at least be willing to consider trading some efficiency for other goods.

The key is not to pretend that various policies have no cost. Rather, the key is to ask the question whether the cost is worth the benefit.

What about Socialism?

As I indicated here a couple of years ago, I believe small government conservatism was dead politically, and it shows no real sign of revival. While I believe that the charges of socialism leveled at the Obama administration are overwrought, there's no doubt that economic policy will involve more government intervention than in past, probably more than in decades.

Hayek's argument in The Road the Serfdom was not exactly an argument against socialism. Rather, it was an argument against government planning in the economic sphere. The context for this argument was World War II, which had involved a massive expansion of government planning in the economy, with the government controlling wages and prices and production. Hayek conceded this was necessary--the goal of defeating fascism was more important than economic freedom.

I think that context however is important in understanding how much intervention the free market can stand. And, the experience of World War II tells we are a long way from what was of concern to Hayek. This is not necessarily an argument in favor of government bailouts of GM. Rather, it suggests that a government bailout of GM on top of government putting stricter regulations in place over the financial sector are a long way from the way government planned the economy in the early 40s.

Running

No, not for office. I'll take a break from politics, since I never intended this to be a political blog anyway and talk about my fitness efforts.

Yesterday, I ran a 5k. More accurately, I ran most of a 5k, but did walk bits and pieces of it. I finished under 32 minutes, which isn't great, but I was pleased. I beat a lot of my friends. It was extremely muggy. Next year, with more training and little cooperation from the weather, I'm going to try to finish under 27 minutes.

The best thing about doing this run for me is that having a goal like running a 5k got me focused on fitness. I intend to keep up the basic workout regimen I've been following for the last couple of months, adding in some weight training. I'm really starting to feel better, and I've even experience that so-called runner's high.

More on not wanting to win

There's a reason why the Republicans may not want to win anytime soon. The problems the country confronts are considerable, and none of them can be solved without significant costs. For now, of course, much of the blame for all this is on the Bush administration. And so for the immediate future, Obama will be given a considerable amount of slack and flexibility. But that won't last forever. By 2012, Obama will have to have made some considerable progress on many fronts to get re-elected.

This is a high risk strategy of course. If Obama is perceived as successful--if unemployment is down to a more tolerable level, say under six percent, if most of US troops are out of Iraq and Afghanistan looks at least solvable, then given Obama's electoral coalition and demographic shifts, you'll be looking at Democratic dominance for at least a decade or two.

Indeed, the strategy has really never worked. Presidents who have come in during times of crisis and succeeded not only won re-election, they changed the electoral map--Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Reagan are obvious examples of this. Hoping that Obama is another Carter strikes me as pretty desparate.

Do Republicans Really Want to Win?

For a long time, I was convinced that the Democratic elite didn't really care about winning. They held their safe seats, and kept the perks that went along with that. Howard Dean, in my opinion changed that, and while some Democratic elites like Pelosi and Reid seem uncomfortable with actual responsibility, the attitude from most Democratic elites is they like power.

Now, however, it seems like Republicans are not really interested in winning. If you are trying to succeed in politics in the US, you need to go about crafting a majority. Karl Rove understood that much. But the difference between the Democrats time in the wilderness and now with the Republicans is that it isn't just elites who don't seem to care about winning, it's rank and file Republicans as well. Fired up by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, they are more interested in purging so-called moderates from their ranks, and engaging in a kind of ideological purification you usually only see once you've taken power.

Is there another explanation for the current Republican obsession with casting out moderates? One way to consider the question is to look at recent events. If you are a conservative or Republican, you probably believe (with some justification) that Obama's election had more to do with dissatisfaction with President Bush than an embrace of liberalism. Similarly, the Democratic Congressional victories in 2006 can also be explained this way. To go along with this vision, many Republicans are emphasizing Bush's departure from basic conservative tenets--immigration reform most notably, but also No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D.

Indeed, a conservative critic of Bush could go further--Bush was not a moderate, he was a Progressive in the mold of Woodrow Wilson. In short, a neo conservative. The battle in the Republican ranks may not be between conservatives and moderates, but rather conservatives and neo-conservatives. This isn't to say moderates are neo-conservatives. But they share more of a common world view than either do with the populist conservatives who currently have the loudest voice in the party. I think there is a fundamental ideological split in the Republican Party, but it isn't between social and economic conservatives, nor is it really between moderates and conservatives. It's progressive neo-cons and populist conservatives.

Cheney's recent comments about Powell notwithstanding, it will be interesting to see how the winds blow going forward.

A heckuva year

So, reflected back on my last year, it was eventful. Phillies win the World Series, Giants win the Superbowl, Obama wins the Presidency, economy collapsed, things got better in Iraq and worse in Afghanistan, bad stuff happened in Mumbai...

And on a personal level, two significant deaths, some other family stuff, but wife and child are doing well. Health is great, even if I am a little chubby. All in all, more blessings than troubles.

One year blog anniversary!

Ok, so it's not like there's been a whole lot of blogging--spurts mostly.

However, I went back and looked to see how I did on my ability to predict things, and guess what--out of four real predictions, I got every one wrong! And here's the thing--they were all reasonable at the time I made them--Hillary was going to be the Democratic nominee, Iowa would be close with Edwards winning (hah!) and some other stuff.

It's my birthday tomorrow, which is the real anniversary of the blog. But I'll be pretty busy tomorrow with work and stuff, so I figured I'd get this post in today. I'd be looking forward to my birthday more if it weren't on a Monday. I don't care about getting older much anymore. Who cares about a few more ear hairs?

But it's a good time to make some vague plans for the next year. I'm going to try to get my yard in shape, get some stuff done around the house that I've been putting off. My wife wants to get going on putting in some flooring in our bedroom that will be my Christmas break. I'm going to spend more time brewing beer--I bottled a batch yesterday and am looking forward to drinking it in about two weeks.

There won't be as much political stuff to blog about this year, seeing as there isn't a Presidential election. And I'm really going to focus on making progress with the book manuscript. I've actually been doing some stuff on it--it's never far from my mind. But a little more focus might make a big difference.

Anyway, thanks for reading. Both of you.