OK, it's time to be wrong. For real. Texas might become electorally interesting sooner rather than later. I'm not saying the Democrats might win here, just that they might make things interesting. It is important to note that in 2004, Bush took Texas by a lot--23 percent. So, what makes me think the Democrats can cut into that margin?
Here are my reasons:
1. Long considered a solidly Republican state, it does have a significant populist tradition. In a year where populism seems to be doing well, that might give the Democrats some votes in Texas.
2. George Bush, who is from Texas, is not on the ballot. That will cost a few votes.
3. McCain--While I expect McCain to do well in the West, I don't know if he'll be enthusiastically received by hardcore Texas conservatives, who are really important. If Republicans who don't like McCain go into Nov. believing the Republicans are sure to hold Texas, and there's no other competitive race out there, they may stay home as a way of expressing their displeasure at McCain.
4. Demographics--Texas is now a white minority state. Not the electorate, of course, but winning Texas means getting some Latino votes. Those votes may be up for grabs in 2008, especially if Texas Republicans start acting like California Republicans.
So, what does that mean--here's the prediction--the Republicans hold Texas, but the margin is in the single digits.
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2 comments:
Interesting analysis. If what you said is true. That Texas will be single digits, what does it suggest about other crucial swing states in general.
By that reckoning, CO. NV, IA and possible VA will be blue, giving victory to Obama. Neat.
Obama/Webb 08.
I think IA and possibly VA may in fact be blue, but I think McCain will probably run very well in CO and NV.
But remember the title of this blog.
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